A new survey from Siena College shows Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul with a 14-point lead over Republican candidate Rep. Lee Zeldin before the November 8 election.
When asked who they would “vote today” with Hochul and Zeldin as candidates for their respective parties, 53% of respondents said they would vote for governor while 39% said they would vote for Zeldin.
Another 7% said they “don’t know” or had no opinion and 2% said they would not vote for governor at all.
“Fourteen weeks is a long time in politics, and we know that most voters don’t really start focusing on the election until after Labor Day. Still, Hochul has an early — but certainly not insurmountable — lead,” pollster Steven Greenberg said.
“Hochul dominates in New York, leading by nearly 50 points, while Zeldin has a slim 3-point lead in both the north and southern suburbs,” Greenberg said.
Political experts say that a path to victory for Zeldin requires winning at least 30% of the vote in Democratic-dominated New York City while winning big in surrounding suburbs and upstate.
See the full results here:
The Siena poll showed Long Island Republican Zeldin ahead of Hochul with suburbanites 46% to 43% and with a 48% to 45% advantage among upstate voters over Governor Buffalonian.
Hochul has the support of 70% of voters in the far-left Big Apple, compared to 21% for Zeldin.
The incumbent is on the rise in all demographic categories based on race, age and income in the survey of 806 likely voters from July 24 to July 28.
Black voters favor Hochul by a 78% to 8% margin, but the poll shows her just six points and eight points ahead among white and Latino voters.
The candidates are close among voters aged 35 to 54, with Hochul leading 46% to 43%. It is up 15 points among older voters and 35 points among voters under 34.
Women favor Hochul by a whopping 26 points while Hochul and Zeldin have 46% support each among men.
A total of 31% of respondents have a favorable opinion of Zeldin, with 28% stating they have an unfavorable opinion while Hochul received favorable ratings from 46% of voters alongside 41% who disapproved.
While 36% of New Yorkers think the Empire State is moving in the right direction, only 19% say the same about the country — an all-time high that could help Republicans like Zeldin campaign on issues like historically high inflation.
New Yorkers are divided on Democratic President Joe Biden, rated in favor and unfavorable by 46% of respondents to the Siena poll.
The poll results are similar to a separate survey released Tuesday morning by Emerson College Polling, which showed Hochul with a 16-point advantage over Zeldin, with similar margins separating candidates in New York and other parts of the world. the state.
While Zeldin appears to be falling short of his campaign goals, he seems better positioned at this stage of the race compared to other recent GOP candidates.
A Siena Poll 2018 showed Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, a Republican, trailing Democratic incumbent Governor Andrew Cuomo by 22 points a few weeks after winning their respective party’s primaries, held in September of that year.
“While the Democrats have won the last four gubernatorial elections, Zeldin’s current 14-point deficit matches the closest Republicans in those races, when Andrew Cuomo beat Rob Astorino 54-40% in 2014. In August 2014, Cuomo led Astorino by 32 points. , 58-26%,” Greenberg said in the press release.
But Zeldin has some catching up to do if he wants to replicate the success of George Pataki, the last Republican to serve as governor.
Republican challenger George Pataki led Democratic Governor Mario Cuomo by 3 points statewide – with an 11-point advantage in New York – in an October 1994 poll led by The New York Times/WCBS-TV News ahead of Pataki’s upset victory over the three-term incumbent in November.
Other GOP candidates on the statewide ticket in November 2022 appear to have even better odds than Zeldin of becoming the first Republican to win a statewide election since Pataki won. his third term in 2002.
U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer and State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli have a 21-point lead in their respective races against Republican nominee Joe Pinion, a former Newsmax host, and banker Paul Rodriguez, according to the Siena poll.
State Attorney General Letitia James is 14 points ahead of business attorney Michael Henry in her own re-election bid.
Hochul has raised more than $34 million in her bid to become the first woman to be elected governor after taking over for the ex-governor last August. Andrew Cuomo, who resigned amid multiple scandals.
Campaign finance disclosures filed in mid-July show her that she has $11.7 million to spend on the upcoming campaign, compared to Zeldin’s $1.6 million.
In recent months, she has campaigned intensively on abortion rights and gun control following controversial U.S. Supreme Court rulings that could weigh on Republicans’ chances in the Empire. State in November.
“Although a small majority of Republicans support the Dobbs decision, it is opposed by 89% of Democrats, 60% of independents and at least 62% of voters from every region, age group, gender and race,” said Greenberg in reference to the recent SCOTUS ruling on abortion.
“Support for the new law expanding the eligibility requirements for a concealed-carry license — background checks with character references and firearms safety training courses — is through the roof with all demographic groups,” he added of new state laws passed in the wake of another ruling. overriding New York’s long-standing rules on carrying concealed weapons.