MLB picks: Why Justin Verlander is Cy Young’s better bet than Dylan Cease ahead of Tuesday showdown

There are about seven weeks left in the 2022 Major League Baseball season and while the most important thing to track is the standings, the individual awards are pretty fun on their own. We watched the MVP races in every league last weekso now let’s look at Cy Young’s races.

All odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of August 16.

American League

The five favorites

Before we dive into where we are, we should note that Tuesday night’s Astros-White Sox game pits the top two favorites against each other. It should be fun.

Verlander is 15-3 with a 1.85 ERA, .86 WHIP and 134 strikeouts-24 walked in 136 innings. He’s fresh out of Tommy John surgery, is 39 and has won two Cy Youngs. He’s a future Hall of Famer. Yeah, I think that’s all that matters, even if it’s just a little bit and even if some voters wouldn’t admit it was subconsciously pulling them in his direction.

Cease is just behind in the ERA and is second in the AL in strikeouts with 174. He’s only pitched 128 2/3 innings so far, but he also leads the majors with 55 walks. . Since it’s so close, I think it will matter. I would avoid Cease at these odds.

McClanahan has allowed 11 earned runs on 20 hits in 16 2/3 innings in his last three starts. He has already pitched 11 more innings than last season and we know how much the Rays are with young arms. Especially at these odds it is a terrible bet.

Long term value

by Manoah blue jays‘ teammate Kevin Gausman is the leader in the Fangraphs version of WAR, thanks to a stellar FIP 2.08, the best in baseball. He leads the AL in strikeouts, with 142 strikeouts and 21 walks in 122 1/3 innings. He’s not in the top 10 in ERA or WHIP, and he’s 8-9. I don’t know how much the FIP will move the needle. Either way, it has a foundation that says +5000 might be worth a look here.

Gerrit Cole fell to +10,000 and has now given up at least five earned runs in five of his 24 starts. He also leads the league in innings pitched and strikeouts while sixth in the WHIP. He’s close enough in the other big stats that a solid stretch run could get him into the mix, but, to be clear, he’s not there right now. It would be betting on a good series to close.

Let’s keep an eye on Shane Biber. The 2020 winner is 4-0 in his last four starts with a 1.67 ERA. He is fourth in innings, fifth in FIP, sixth in Fangraphs WAR, ninth in WHIP and seventh in strikeouts. The Guardians also have a fairly easy remaining schedule, so it’s a good chance to rack up the stats and we know voters can be swayed by the late hot streak.

I’ll go with Gausman here, though the other two are certainly intriguing (Bieber more so than Cole, if I had to rank them).

The choice

All roads lead to Verlandese here. Yeah, I’m counting on him to hold on as McClanhan isn’t going to log too many innings and Cease’s walks are a problem. In fact, after Verlander, I would bypass the other favorites and go straight to Gausman, Bieber and Cole.

National League

The five favourites:

Alcantara is the overwhelming favorite and rightly so. He has already pitched 173 innings, giving him a lead of over 20 (!). No one in the AL has reached 145 yet. He has three full games while no one else has more than one. He also has the best ERA at 1.92 while leading in WAR, ERA+ and added win probability. It’s 11-5 and the marlins are 15-9 when he starts. When he doesn’t, they are 36-56. Where it does not lead, it is near. He is fourth in WHIP, fourth in strikeouts, fourth in FIP and third in hitting percentage (hits allowed per nine innings).

If anyone has the stats to make a run at Alcantara, it’s Burnes, the 2021 winner. He’s third in ERA, second in WHIP, sixth in innings and leads in strikeouts.

Basically, as evidenced by the ratings, this should be over. Then again, pitchers can be volatile and there remains the possibility of Alcantara picking up an injury – which would always keep him in the mix, especially if he only misses a few starts – or have a few slumps dragging his stat line. .

Long term value

Tony Gonsolin is 14-1 with a 2.24 ERA, so fans and veteran voters are sure to have an eye on him. It is currently at +3000.

If there’s anyone who can get hot enough to turn heads, it would be Max Scherzer. He sits at +3500. In 16 starts and 102 2/3 innings, he is 8-2 with a 1.93 ERA, .93 WHIP and 126 strikeouts to 17 walks. He would need others above him to stumble and get incredibly hot, but it is possible.

Aaron Nola seat at +4000. He is second in the Baseball-Reference version of WAR and third in the Fangraphs version. He is second in innings pitched, third in strikeouts, third in WHIP, third in FIP and has the lowest walk rate. He’s outside the ERA top 10, which is probably why his chances are so long, but it looks like the problem is in his defense and voters in newer schools will notice. The Phillies having an easy remaining schedule, too, as a bonus.

Edwin Díaz (+4000) is having an all-time great drawdown season, but I don’t think a drawdown has a chance of winning this award unless the starting field is devoid of great candidates.

Scherzer is the longtime choice here.

The choice

Alcantara. It’s a pretty safe bet here that I believe any other bet is a loss and a waste of money.

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