Maybe Kelce qualifies more as an overrated fantasy player than the harshly labeled “bust,” but he’ll soon be 33 and is clearly in the declining phase of his career – still drafted among the top 20 picks. Kelce’s yards per throw have dropped nearly 20% over the past three seasons with Tyreek Hill off the fieldand Kansas City added Ju Ju Smith Schuster play the slot machine during the offseason.
Kelce is drafted higher than Mark Andrewswho is six years younger, lost Marquise Brown as a competition and saw 15 targets in the end zone last season compared to just four for Kelce. Make sense!
Sutton’s ADP looked like one of the most egregious in recent memory before Tim Patrick has fallen for the season, but now it’s just steadily overvalued. Although it is certainly a boost to have Russell Wilson as a quarterback, Sutton’s ADP treats him like a top 20 WR, which is terribly aggressive. Sutton’s target rate per route dropped by 38% and his yards per course went from 2.10 to 0.48 (!) with Jeudy in the field last season.
In other words, even though Jeudy suffered from a severe ankle sprain, 83% of Sutton’s fantasy points came with his teammate stopped the field last season. While there was certainly some Wilson/Sutton buzz this summer, there is a real argument the Denver’s poor receiver is drafted first in fantasy leagues.
Allen has safe ground and a star quarterback throws to him, but he’s a 30-year-old whose yards per pass have dropped every season since 2017. placing just 30th out of 90 qualified WRs last year. More importantly, Allen fantasy targets and production dropped sharply once Joshua Palmer took over as WR3 from LA for the final five weeks of last season.
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In other words, Allen saw his target run rate per route drops from 27% to 20% with Palmer in the fieldand the second year numbers to see a lot more action in 2022.
San Francisco 49ers: Deebo Samuel
Samuel is drafted as a fantastic top-eight receiver despite not placing in the top 50 in routes run or in the top 25 in goals last season. And his role in the passing game this year remains a question mark, with San Francisco looking to Trey Lancewho worked exclusively with Brandon Aïyuk throughout the summer while Samuel mostly held on for a new contract. San Francisco’s new starting QB will fully attack different ground level that Jimmy Garoppolo.
Samuel is a yardage dynamo after the catch who will be used all over the pitch, but last season was the first he didn’t miss a game. It was also the first time he had seen more than 81 targets. Samuel sort of rushed to eight scores in just 59 attemptsand the 49ers RB room enters 2022 much healthier and much deeper.
Samuel just shouldn’t see nearly the same volume as other drafted receivers around him, making him a fantastic second-round pick that’s extremely risky.
Seattle Seahawks: DK Metcalf
Metcalf still drafted as top-20 fantasy receiver despite Seattle loss Russell Wilson during the offseason. Geno Smith was named QB1, (and the alternative is not much better), and Metcalf saw his air yards per game are halved and his target share drops below teammate Tyler Locket with Smith playing quarterback.
Metcalf is talented enough to overcome his suddenly precarious situation (Seattle too played by far the fewest games in the NFL last season), but realize he benefited greatly from a Hall of Fame quarterback who consistently targeted him in the end zone more times than any other WR in the league.
And we ain’t even started on Metcalf’s “nutrition” Again.
[2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | DEFs | Ks]
Washington Commanders: Terry McLaurin
Scary Terry is one of the best wide receivers in football, but he’s drafted too high in the fantasy, like he’s no longer struggling with a bad quarterback situation. Carson Wentz was one of the most inaccurate QBs in the league last season and now will play on the outside and with a demotion to the offensive line. Additionally, rookie WR Jahan Dotson reportedly showed more chemistry with Wentzso I’m having trouble ranking McLaurin, who posted a 23-318-0 line in the last seven games of last season, among the top 15 WRs as his ADP.
Imagine drafting McLaurin before Allen Robinson This year.