California’s power grid could be tested like never before, officials warned Monday, as they urged the public to step up conservation efforts or face the prospect of losing power during a historic heat wave that has not finished roasting the State.
The projected energy load on California’s electrical infrastructure exceeds what state officials expect to have available to them on Labor Day. And Tuesday should be even worse.
That’s when electricity demand is expected to be the highest on record, California independent system operator President and CEO Elliot Mainzer told a conference call. press on Monday.
“The forecast for Tuesday would be higher than the highest demand ever,” he said. “Right now our goal is not to see that number.”
To keep demand from exceeding state supply, Mainzer pointed out that consumers should increase their electricity conservation efforts by two to three times what they did at the start of the historic heat wave.
State officials expect to need 48,817 megawatts of electricity Monday, which would leave the state with a deficit of 2,000 to 4,000 megawatts, Mainzer said. He said the projected shortfall created “the highest likelihood of rotating outages we’ve seen so far this summer.”
The projected shortfall led grid operators to declare a Phase 1 energy emergency alert on Monday morning. They also announced a Flex Alert for the sixth consecutive day, calling on consumers to reduce their electricity consumption. So far it has worked, as people in California have saved 600 to 700 megawatts in the past few days.
State regulators extended Monday’s Flex Alert by one hour, covering 4 p.m. to 10 p.m., and asked consumers to avoid running appliances, setting thermostats to 78 degrees or higher and to turn off all unnecessary lights during these peak hours.
Around 2:30 p.m. Monday, the power market will close and system operators will have a better idea of what to expect for the evening hours. If resources fall too low, energy regulators could trigger a Stage 2 emergency, which would force the state to draw on its emergency energy reserves, electricity from last-minute imports and generators. He estimated the state has about 3,000 megawatts of backup, which provides a small “buffer.”
If a Stage 3 is reached and power needs to be shut off, state regulators will ask utilities to figure out how best to reduce usage, likely by rotating between systems, hopefully for short durations, a said Mainzer.
“Power outages are a possibility today,” he said.
On Tuesday, the state is forecasting a load of 51,000 megawatts, the highest on record for the state. The highest electrical load ever drained by Californians was 50,270 megawatts on July 24, 2006.
Fortunately, the Pacific Northwest avoided the heat wave, allowing California to import power from that region. Utilities have agreements to share power in emergencies, Mainzer said.
California grid operators are monitoring wildfires to make sure they don’t damage generators or transmission cables. Several generators are already offline, which is constricting power supplies.
This week’s heat wave is expected to last through Friday with daytime temperatures expected to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Early Monday morning, around 3 a.m., temperatures remained in the 80s to 90s in some inland parts of the Bay Area. The National Weather Service has extended an excessive heat warning and heat advisory until 8 p.m. Thursday. Conditions are dangerous for those vulnerable to heat and without access to cooling and hydration.
State officials suggest consumers pre-cool their homes with air conditioning during the day when electricity demand isn’t as high.
Severin Borenstein, a UC Berkeley energy professor and ISO board member, noted on Twitter that it wouldn’t take much for the public to avoid blackouts.
“Today seems difficult tomorrow seems really difficult”, Borenstein tweeted. “But reducing system demand by even 10% would virtually eliminate any problem.”
Matthias Gafni is a writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. E-mail: matthias.gafni@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @mgafni