The potential plan underscores the widespread sense of alarm across Europe as the fallout from the war continues to weigh on European economies. It comes just days after energy giant Gazprom suspended the flow of gas through a key pipeline – a move initially blamed on technical issues all the way to the Kremlin intervened say that these were in fact Western sanctions.
“We are facing an extraordinary situation, because Russia is an unreliable supplier and is manipulating our energy markets,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday, outlining the commission’s plan. “Our unity and solidarity will ensure that we win.”
But despite all the rhetoric of solidarity, the EU remains divided on the details, with some countries expressing skepticism about windfall taxes and others worried about the idea of a gas price cap. Some would like to change the bloc’s electricity market, while others want an overhaul, including full decoupling of gas and electricity prices. “The devil is in the details,” said a senior EU diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss behind-the-scenes talks.
As Europe searches for common ground in the days and weeks ahead, Russian President Vladimir Putin will seek to exploit differences in position, pitting countries with different levels of energy dependence against each other. to weaken the West’s response, said Simone Tagliapietra, an energy expert at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank. “For Russia, it’s about divide and conquer,” he said.
In the more than six months since Russia launched its full-scale invasion, the EU has attempted to weaken Russia’s energy leverage – with mixed results.
The Russian pipeline now accounts for 9% of EU gas imports, von der Leyen said on Wednesday, not the 40% it represented at the start of the war. EU last week achieves its goal to bring gasoline reserves to 80% well before the weather turns November. As Europe’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels declines, EU officials say, Putin is losing his grip.
For now, energy markets remain in crisis and EU countries are spending billions to subsidize electricity bills. Germany announced plans for a nearly $65 billion relief package on Sunday, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledging to crack down on energy suppliers who make “excessive profits”. The revenues from the exceptional taxes on these producers will be used to reduce the consumer prices of gas, oil and coal.
The commission, the EU’s executive body, would like to see similar measures at EU level, according to a document it unveiled ahead of the summit. Von der Leyen on Wednesday outlined plans for what she called a cap on revenues for companies producing electricity at relatively low costs but selling it at the high prices allowed by European market rules.
Wholesale electricity prices have skyrocketed because they are currently tied to the cost of natural gas, which has increased exponentially due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The current system inflates the cost of several other types of energy, such as solar energy or electricity produced from waste-to-gas plants.
The commission aims to level out costs and bring some consistency to electricity prices across Europe. This would create a de facto windfall tax on power producers who have reaped record profits due to high natural gas prices, using the revenue to lower consumers’ energy bills.
The plan is bold, but it also carries significant risks. The underlying problem in Europe is that the demand for energy far exceeds the supply. Tackling this problem without significantly reducing demand or bringing more energy to Europe risks creating market distortions that could ultimately worsen shortages. The windfall tax, for example, could discourage companies from making new investments in desperately needed energy infrastructure. Price caps that lower the cost of energy may induce consumers to use more of it, thus aggravating the supply problem.
The plan addresses these issues by also including a provision that sets mandatory targets for reducing energy consumption during peak hours. But implementing such cuts is a heavy burden, which would require countries to pay subsidies to compensate for the losses incurred when companies are forced to cut production. The plan is vague on exactly how those cuts would be applied, leaving it to each country to “identify the best ways to reduce total consumption”.
Another provision of the plan would attempt to cap the price of natural gas delivered to Europe from Russia. This would allow countries to continue buying Russian gas as long as the price does not exceed a certain threshold. The idea would be to set the price cap above production costs but below current prices, encouraging Russia to keep gas flowing but limiting profits.
“We need to cut the revenue from Russia that Putin is using to fund this atrocious war in Ukraine,” von der Leyen said Wednesday.
But some countries and analysts are skeptical of its effectiveness, given that Russia already has the upper hand in gas supplies and uses it as an economic weapon against Europe. Russia could use this measure to justify further disruptions or to cut off the flow of gas to Europe.
Putin, for his part, has made it clear that any new measures will not go unanswered. In a speech On Wednesday, he railed against the cap on Russian oil prices imposed by the Group of Seven most industrialized countries and warned of further cuts to come.
“We won’t supply gas, oil, coal, fuel oil,” he said, “We won’t supply anything.”
Halper reported from Washington. Kate Brady in Berlin contributed to this report.
War in Ukraine: what you need to know
The last: Grain shipments from Ukraine are picking up under the deal forged by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations in July. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports had caused food prices to soar and raised fears of a resurgence of hunger in the Middle East and Africa. At least 18 ships, including loads of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, left.
The fight: The conflict on the ground continues as Russia uses its advantage in heavy artillery to hit Ukrainian forces, which have at times been able to endure rigid resistance. In the south, Ukrainian hopes rest on the liberation of the territories occupied by Russia Kherson regionand finally Crimea, seized by Russia in 2014. Fears of a disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant remain as both sides accuse each other of bombing it.
Arms: Western arms deliveries help Ukraine slow Russian advances. United States-supplied high-mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) allow Ukrainian forces will strike further behind Russian lines against Russian artillery. Russia used a array of weapons against Ukraine, some of which have drawn the attention and concern of analysts.
Pictures: Washington Post photographers have been in the field since the very beginning of the war — here are some of their most powerful works.
How you can help: Here’s how those in the United States can help support the Ukrainian people as good as what people around the world have given.
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